Season Opener Preview: Purdue at Cincinnati

September 1, 2012; West Lafayette, IN, USA; Purdue Boilermakers quarterback Rob Henry (15) runs as Eastern Kentucky Colonels defensive back Brandon Stanley (34) defends at Ross Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sandra Dukes-USA TODAY Sports

Purdue opens up the 2013 season with a trip to Ohio to face the Cincinnati Bearcats.

For the Boilermakers, it will be the debut of new head coach Darrell Hazell. It will also be the coaching debut of Tommy Tuberville for Cincinnati.

Purdue finished last season with a 7-6 record, while the Bearcats were 10-3. Cincinnati is ranked as the second best team in the ACC, just behind Louisville.

Here’s what we’ll be watching for:

• Run to win. This is actually true in college, unlike the NFL. Hazell had a very potent rushing attack while at Kent State and at Purdue he has some very capable running backs. However, having a run heavy offense can leave a team in a big hole. It chews up a lot of clock and leads to more close wins than blowouts (unless you’re Alabama). This isn’t to say running the ball is bad, but Purdue will need a balanced attack on offense. If the Bearcats score consistently, Hazell will have to abandon the running game and start passing.
• Rob Henry. Speaking of passing, can Henry be the next big Purdue QB? He has minimal starting experience, but did see snaps last season. The year before he sat out with an ACL injury. Henry seems more than capable of running this offense, but how much will Purdue actually pass the ball? Hazell’s system at Kent State saw the Golden Flashes run the ball 584 times, and pass 358 times. Hazell had two 1,000+ yard rushers last season, but the passing game wasn’t nearly that dynamic. How Henry performs in crunch time and during two minute drills will tell us a lot about how this team will perform the rest of the season.
• The Defense. Last season, Purdue had a very solid defense and one of the better secondaries in the Big Ten. But it was still an inconsistent defense, and was badly exposed against superior opponents. This looks like a year where the D will be the more advanced unit and might have to carry the team through games. Purdue will likely run the ball a lot, and that means the defense will need to lock down the Bearcats and keep the score manageable.
• Who QBs the Bearcats. This could work into the Boilermaker’s favor as Tuberville has yet to name a starting QB. Both Brendon Kay and Munchie Legaux are competent QBs. Legaux is a threat to run the ball, but isn’t all that accurate of a passer. Kay is a pocket passer and very accurate, but has been sidelined with a sore shoulder. It’s possible that Tuberville will utilize both QBs, but inconsistency and a lack of continuity at this position is an advantage that favors Purdue.
• Finding points. Last season, Cincinnati had the 14th best defense in the nation and held opponents to just 18.5 points per game. While they lost a few starters, a lot of the unit is still intact. With Purdue entering the game using a new system, a new coach, and a QB with minimal starting experience it could be a struggle to find the end zone.

Cincinnati has a distinct advantage talent wise over Purdue. Even though both teams have new systems and coaches, its likely that the Bearcats have the upper edge here. This isn’t a cupcake season opener for either team, but Purdue chose not to schedule one this season (unlike IU and Notre Dame).

This will be an interesting matchup. Both teams seems to have strengths where the other has weaknesses, the key to the game will be which team is better at exploiting those weaknesses. A win for the Boilers would be fantastic, and prove that they can make noise the rest of the season. A lose, especially a blowout, will dishearten the fans until Purdue blows out Indiana State next week. 

This doesn’t seem to be Purdue’s day. They can keep it closer than the 10.5 point spread favoring Cincinnati suggests, but I still expect the Bearcats to win.

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