5 Pacers Storylines to Watch Next Year: Part 4

Rotations

Frank Vogel is a very talented head basketball coach.  What he did taking over midseason from Jim O’Brien in the 2010-2011 to how the team performed through the halfway point last year prove that.  He immediately came in, installed his style (specifically defense) and got the players to buy in.  The result?  Fifty-four playoff games in four seasons, this coming after the darkest period in the franchise’s history – post-brawl in Detroit and post-Reggie Miller.

I still think Vogel is a very talented basketball coach.  Despite last year’s second-half stumble which had the Indiana Pacers playing the occasional mediocre-at-best basketball, that Jekyll-and-Hyde team STILL came within two games of the NBA Finals, even when his team was playing far from its best.

That being said, last year clearly exposed some flaws in Vogel’s wheelhouse. His play-calling was predictable. Defense was as solid as ever. Vogel’s system works, but he also had player personnel that fit perfectly into it, namely, Paul George and Roy Hibbert. Offense though? Yikes. The old saying is that, “defense wins championships,” but when your offense is slogging through the bottom half of the league, that defense can only take you so far. Exhibit A:  the 2014 playoffs.

Spinning off of that, Vogel’s other short-coming was rotations.  There were times where the Pacers flat-out needed some points.  Yet in those moments, Luis Scola’s number would continually be called, despite being a liability on defense and inconsistent on offense.  Even though Scola’s shot was still there, he could only stretch the floor so much.  Not nearly as much as…say…and I’m just pulling this name out of a hat…Chris Copeland, the fan-favorite sharp-shooter who was nailed to the bench most of the season.  Copeland may be a turn-style on defense himself, but when you have a Roy Hibbert waiting in the wings to protect the rim, you can sacrifice a little defense to space the floor and have a knock-down three-point shooter on the floor to bail you out.  Copeland never had any standout games last year, mainly because he didn’t have the opportunity.  But when his number was called at the end of a late-season game in Milwaukee where the starters had the night off, Copeland drove and drilled a game-winning floater in the lane.

Not that we can expect that every night, of course.  But the fact remains that Vogel seeming to blindly continue to play Scola, no matter the circumstances, was a major issue.  It showed a questionable ability to adjust on the fly and improvise, which he will need to do more of this year without Lance Stephenson or Paul George to take it upon themselves to bail out a possession.

Scola will still play this year.  That’s fine.  He has some good qualities that he brings, but not to the point that he should continually overshadow Copeland or even Lavoy Allen.  Vogel even admitted that he would do some things differently this time around, so let’s hope he has indeed learned from some past errors.

He will need to be much more creative with his rotations this year, which is very doable since front office president Larry Bird has stacked the roster with multiple players who can play more than one position.  Since the Pacers won’t have an all-but-guaranteed playoff spot, the likes of Hibbert, George Hill, and David West shouldn’t expect many sporadic nights off this year to keep them fresh.  Not when the East has a more crowded middle tier of playoff-worthy teams.

My prediction for rotations:

— Like last year, Hill and C.J. Watson dominate the point guard spots, each sharing time on the floor with fellow combo guard Rodney Stuckey.

— Stuckey starts at shooting guard with C.J. Miles – who can also slide over to small forward – being the first man off the bench.

— Copeland starts at small forward for an extra offensive weapon on the floor to kick off games, but goes to the bench early to make room for Solomon Hill to be a more lockdown defensive presence when sharing the floor with the likes of Watson, Miles, and Scola.  Expect Copeland to play a little power forward when they go small as well.

— West rightfully dominates the power forward minutes, with the backup time share being divvied up between Scola and Lavoy Allen.

— Hibbert and Ian Mahinmi once again dominate the center minutes.

— Not exactly sure how Damjan Rudez will fit in here yet, because he’s still such a mystery.  But I expect him to begin the season watching and learning the NBA game.  Eventually though, I expect the team to focus on his multi-year development and take minutes from Scola, who is on a contract year, late in the season.  It honestly wouldn’t shock me if the Pacers try to showcase Scola for trade purposes, but then buy him out past the trade deadline if they find no takers.

Oddly enough, this Pacers team, despite a lack of all-world talent, is still pretty deep.  Of the eventual final 15 guys guys to make the roster, all but one or two of them wouldn’t have much trouble finding a job in the league.  So, don’t be surprised to see 10 or 11 of them play on any given night.

Especially at the beginning of the season, Vogel will be doing a lot of what I did when I coached a middle school team – everything is on the table and throw it against the wall and see what sticks.  Either way, this season could be a frustratingly fun experiment to watch unfold as a fan.  With the potentially ever-fluid minutes distribution this year, Vogel will need his players to buy in once again.