Why the Indiana Pacers Still Must Stay The Course

Nov 5, 2014; Washington, DC, USA; Indiana Pacers guard Donald Sloan (15) dribbles the ball as Washington Wizards forward Nene (42) defends in the second quarter at Verizon Center. The Wizards won 96-94 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Many declared the 2014-2015 Indiana Pacers dead in the water before the season even began, once Paul George went down with the notoriously gruesome leg injury while scrimmaging for Team USA. Yours truly thought the club still had enough to fend off some combination of the Hawks, Knicks, Nets, and Pistons to squeak into the playoffs. However, when a team – any team – is down four starters (George, David West, George Hill, Rodney Stuckey), plus a key reserve (C.J. Watson), any team will struggle. That’s exactly where the Pacers are just seven games into this young season.

The Indiana Pacers have not started 1-6 since the 1993-1994 season, where the likes of Reggie Miller, Rik Smits, Derrick McKey, and the Davises were donning the blue and gold. However, if you’re looking for a silver lining comparison, that team put together two separate winning streaks of seven or more, rallied to 47-35, and made it all the way to within one game of the NBA Finals. It’s hard to imagine this current squad being able to replicate that, but you never know. The NBA is unpredictable, and you need to look no further than what this franchise’s roster has gone through the last few months.

While I don’t see a miraculous run to a third straight Conference Finals appearance in the works, I still believe the Pacers must do what Larry Bird set out to do early in the offseason:  stay the course. It’s why the rumor of a Chris Copeland-for- J.R. Smith swap sounded ridiculous (from a basketball, locker room, and salary cap perspective.) It’s why fans on the outside clamoring to move Roy Hibbert and/or George Hill may not be looking at the bigger picture. It’s why not panicking when former Pacer Danny Granger’s body started to betray him paid off (and paid Paul George.) As backwards of a step as the current state of the team is compared to their playoff expectations under head coach Frank Vogel, team president Larry Bird shouldn’t panic again here either, despite being just one of just five teams with one or fewer wins thus far.

Why?

For one, despite a dreaded start that many may have seen coming, we’re only seven games in, or not even 10 percent of the way through the season yet. As of this writing, the defending champion San Antonio Spurs are in the cellar of their division, and if you look at the bottom of the Northwest Division, you’ll see the Indiana Pacers of the Western Conference. The Oklahoma City Thunder lost Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Jeremy Lamb, and others for early chunks of the season. Reggie Jackson started the season on the shelf but has since returned, right in time for a promising young wing replacement, Perry Jones III, to suffer an injury of his own. OKC is in the same boat as the Pacers, in that they, too, were also granted a league exemption and sign a 16th player.

The Spurs aren’t panicking, the Thunder aren’t panicking, and the Pacers shouldn’t either. Although the Eastern Conference has improved this offseason, it’s still very top-heavy. At the end of it all, it’s probably still Cleveland and Chicago in their own tier, followed by a middle tier consisting of the likes of the Raptors, Heat, Wizards, and Bobcats. Then, that leaves the teams that will occupy seeds No. 7 and 8 which, if the past few years are any indication, will require said teams to be maybe a tad above .500. So, even despite a 1-6 start, a couple hot streaks could have the Pacers right back in the mix of a final playoff spot.

But, let’s say that the playoffs indeed won’t be making a stop in the Circle City this year. What will have been gained?

For one, gobs and gobs of experience for players who may not have gotten their chance had the roster been at its best. Second-year swingman Solomon Hill, who barely broke a sweat last year and looked as timid as ever in this season’s early goings, has scored double-figures in five straight games in addition to contributing some nice steals and rebounds, including a career-best 28 Saturday against Washington, a game that also saw C.J. Miles out with a migraine. Chris Copeland also rarely saw the floor last year, but is currently leading the team in scoring with 17 a game. Donald Sloan went from third string to starter, averaging 15/5/6 as floor general.

Damjan Rudez has played double-digit minutes in every game this year, as has Lavoy Allen, and even undrafted rookie Shayne Whittington finally made his debut this weekend, pitching in eight points, three rebounds, and two assists in under 10 minutes (which we may see more of depending on Roy Hibbert’s knee injury he suffered against the Wiz.) While none of this has resulted in more than one W thus far, compounded by offensive lulls and poor execution down the stretch of close games, kudos to Frank Vogel for throwing his guys out there and getting them experience and developing his players, which is really the best case scenario this season. When this team is back at full strength, this team will be insanely deep. Deep to the point where Vogel could play all 13 guys to dress and count on them producing. With the experience and confidence these guys are getting, Hill or Sloan being the offensive focus of the second unit isn’t as cringe-worthy as it once was.

Another reason to stay the course? The future salary cap. A lottery pick should mean a talented rookie on a cheap contract. Not only that, but Hibbert and West can theoretically both become free agents next summer. Even if they elect to stick around for another year, there are some good options potentially out there. Rookie scale options were declined for players like Thomas Robinson, Austin Rivers, and Shane Larkin. Additionally, rookie contracts weren’t extended for various players, meaning that players hitting restricted free agency this coming summer will include Jimmy Butler (who would be a fantastic fit in Indy, a perfect Larry Bird-type of guy), Reggie Jackson, Brandon Knight, Enes Kanter, Tobias Harris, Derrick Williams, and Tristan Thompson (and technically Kawhi Leonard, but good luck getting him out of San Antonio and undoing that 2011 draft night trade for George Hill.) Adding future salary just for getting rid of an existing, larger, soon-to-expire contract that could jeopardize getting one of those guys is the epitome of a knee-jerk reaction. Obviously, if a no-brainer trade offer comes across Larry Bird’s desk, he’ll pull the trigger, as he should.

Facts are facts:  1-6 is not fun. It’s not fun for fans, it’s not fun for the team. Yet, the player development and the fighting spirit I’ve seen under some extremely tough circumstances (back-to-backs, on the road, injuries, the whole nine yards) have made these first couple weeks the most promising 1-6 start you could ask for.