Hoosiers Look to Break Even in MSG Against Hoyas

Saturday, Tom Crean and his Indiana Hoosiers make their second trip this season into Madison Square Garden. Riding a three game winning streak, the Hoosiers look to even their record in NYC to 1-1 on the year, when they take on John Thompson III’s Georgetown Hoyas. After the 20 point thumbing they suffered  at the hands of Louisville in the same venue, the Hoosiers stepped it up a notch, running their record to 10-2. Although they’ve still shown inconsistent effort on the defensive end, IU has shown significant progress in crucial aspects of the game, and look to be hitting somewhat of a stride as they approach conference play.

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The Cream and Crimson are set to take on a Georgetown squad that will test Indiana’s weaknesses. While unranked, the Hoyas come into this weekend’s contest sporting a record of 7-3. Notably, all seven Hoya victories have come at home, while their three losses have come on neutral courts. Two of Goergetown’s losses came at the hands of nationally ranked opponents, Kansas and Wisconsin. Coincidently, the third loss game against the recent IU opponent, Butler Bulldogs. Georgetown lost that game, 64-58. Does that foreshadow a potential IU victory? Perhaps, but the potential match ups are quite a bit different for the Hoosiers in this case. What should we look for in IU’s next showdown in MSG? Well, here’s my best guess:

Can the Hoosiers defend the post and rebound against Georgetown’s much bigger front line?

The Hoyas bring with them the biggest front court this young Hoosier team has faced so far, and it’s not just height. Hoyas big man, UCLA transfer, Joshua Smith, comes in at 6’10 and a staggering 350 lbs. At that size, a comparison to former Hoosier, DeAndre Thomas would seem to be appropriate. Bottom line, the guy is big. We’re talking wide-load sign, take up two lanes on the highway, Mack truck big, and I say that in a good way.

To say that he will present a challenge to Hanner and Emmitt Holt is an understatement. Aside from his obvious athletic limitations, Smith leads the Hoyas in rebounding with nearly seven a game, and is their second leading scorer at just shy of 13 per contest. The guy is, simply put, a behemoth. The Hoosiers haven’t faced a space eater like Smith all season, and probably won’t again this year. The IU bigs are going to have their hands full. How they respond will go a long way in determining the outcome of the game. Either they rise to the occasion, and we all are smiling at the end of the game, or they let Smith bully them, and Hoosier fans might be finishing off the leftover spiked eggnog come Saturday night.

Can the Hoyas contain IU’s long-range jump shooters?

The Hoosiers come in averaging nine threes per game, and are shooting outside the arch at a 41% pace, both being tops in the Big Ten conference and top 10 nationally. So far this season, the Hoyas have allowed an average of just 31% from three-point range, allowing just over five from downtown in each ball game. Something will have to give there. Ultimately, the Hoosiers might just have too many weapons from long-range, however. With five guys on the team shooting higher the 40% from deep this season, keeping a body on all of those guys while containing the Hoosier penetration will present a challenge to any team.

Butler was another opponent that had been shutting down other teams from deep all year-long, and the Hoosiers torched the Bulldogs for 44% from downtown, to the tune of eight threes.  Tom Crean has a team that is capable of a three-point blitzkrieg every single night. If  one or two of them are having an off night, he simply brings in more shooters off the bench. There may be a few statistically better three-point shooting teams than the Hoosiers, but I’d be willing to bet the farm than none of them have a group of long-range bombers that is anywhere near as deep as the one Tom Crean has assembled in Bloomington. It’s incredibly fun to watch if  you’re a Hoosier basketball fanatic. If you’re the John Thompson III, on the other hand, I’d imagine it likely contributed to a recent bout with insomnia.

Who will win the Yogi Ferrell/DeVauntes Smith-Rivera match up?

In a battle of former top Indiana high school point guards, this will be billed as the premier match up of the night, not only from a talent standpoint, but for the back story as well.

Both point guards were in the same much-heralded 2012 Indiana high school recruiting class that produced quite a few division one basketball players. Yogi and DeVauntes have squared off on the court many times in the past, both in AAU and in their prep careers.

One of the more interesting things of note here, is that, at one time, Smith-Rivera was rumored to have Indiana has the leader in his recruitment. Many folks were almost certainly that the Indianapolis native would play his college ball in Bloomington. Instead, Tom Crean ultimately narrowed in on fellow Indianapolis point guard, Yogi Ferrell, and Smith-Rivera ultimately ended up signing with Georgetown.

Ferrell is averaging  16 a game for the Hoosiers, while smith-Rivera leads the Hoyas in scoring at just over 13 a contest. Ferrell, known as IU’s main backcourt lock down defender, will likely draw the defensive assignment on DeVauntes, and vice-versa. This kind of match up is what our friends at ESPN dream about, that gives their color commentators something to bring up 20 times throughout the game to make themselves sound smart. All joking aside, that one on one match up is going to be fun to watch.

Will Troy Williams and Hanner Mosquera-Perea continue their break out performance?

Ever since the Louisville game, Indiana’s two starting forwards appear to have found another gear. The tandem has shown a level of poise and confidence over the past four games that Hoosier fans hasn’t seen thus far in their careers.

In the last four outings, IU’s front court duo has combined for 95 points, and 52 rebounds.  If that kind of effort and production from both players can be sustained long-term, Hoosier fans can look forward to seeing  a better-than-predicted IU squad that likely punches its ticket to the big dance come march.

The bottom line?

The Hoyas certainly present a challenge unlike any other that the young Hoosiers have faced this year. Indiana will likely have trouble guarding Joshua Smith in the paint. I expect him to have a huge game for the Georgetown. I’m not sure, however, that can make up for the Hoosiers’ outside shooting. The Hoyas have shown they are good at guarding against the three, but so was Butler, and that didn’t seem to matter to IU’s band of long-range snipers.

The Hoyas are a good team, but they’re not Louisville inside. Ultimately in becomes a game of outside versus inside, and this time, I’m predicting the good guys two come out ahead, 82-70. The Hoosiers pull away late in the second half,  and add another signature victory to their resume. My guess is, come 2pm Saturday, the Hoosier faithful will receive a belated Christmas gift from the boys in candy stripes. A Hoosier win beats a membership in the Jelly of the Month Club any day. Right?