Hoosiers Face Difficult Five-Game Stretch

The Hoosiers started this season figuring to have improved perimeter shooting and difficulties defending the post. Just about every Hoosier fan know that going in. I, for one, was looking for an improvement from last year, and I thought it was possible.

On paper, the Hoosiers boast one of the deepest teams in terms of outside shooting that I have ever seen donning the candy stripes. They have five guys that see regular playing time that are lights out shooters from 3pt range. A sixth, seldom used sub, Tim Priller, is known for his lethal outside shot as well.

We all thought IU would have difficulty with big, physical teams, and would struggle with rebounding quite a bit. While the big teams have given the Hoosiers some difficulty, IU has held its own in the rebounding war, actually out rebounding every Big Ten foe they’ve played, aside from train wreck of a game at Michigan State.

Indiana is still the highest scoring team in the Big Ten, although not by much. Truth be told, if someone told me that Hoosiers would have a 4-1 Big Ten record, and be tied for the best record in the conference at this point in the season, I would have questioned their sanity. Ultimately, though, the Hoosiers have found a way to win games.

Now is where the going gets tough. IU basketball is getting ready to enter the meat of the Big Ten schedule, playing a tough stretch of five games that will certainly challenge Tom Crean’s young group. Three out of those five games will be on the road, where history has never been on Indiana’s side, or any other Big Ten team’s side, for that matter.

We’ve seen two different Indiana teams. We’ve seen a team that can shoot lights-out, hustles on defense, and rebounds like their lives depend on it. We’ve also seen a team that tends to play down to their competition, and can often appear disinterested in playing defense at all.

The Hoosiers had a big win in Champagne this weekend, and proved they can take the other team’s best shot and then fire back. In times past, we’ve seen Coach Crean’s teams cave under pressure in away games. This year, aside from the MSU game, that hasn’t happened.

So now the Hoosiers come to a crossroads in their season. The results of next five games will go a long way in deciding whether this season is considered a success or a failure.

To make matters worse, IU’s already undersized roster has gotten even smaller with Hanner Mosquera-Perea’s knee injury. The 6’9 power forward is out indefinitely for the Hoosiers, forcing Crean to go with “small ball” for conceivably the bulk of the remainder of the conference season.

Indiana now enters the gauntlet; give games that might just determine their tournament fate. Thursday night, the Hoosiers welcome 13th ranked Maryland to town for their first in conference meeting with the Terrapins. At a surprising 5-1, Mark Turgeon’s squad comes in to Bloomington tied with Wisconsin atop the Big Ten Conference standings.

The Terrapins, much like Indiana, were projected before the season to finish somewhere towards the end of the pack in the Big Ten. At a record of 17-2, Maryland has excelled where many predicted struggles.

Like just about every other team in the Big Ten, Maryland is considerably bigger at the five spot that the Hoosiers, with 6’11, 245lbs Damonte Dodd starting in the middle. They bring a 7’1 guy off the bench in freshman Michael Cekovsky. Notably, however, the two combine for just eight points and seven rebounds a game; hardly impressive numbers from 14 feet of big man.

The Terrapins are among the league’s best defensive teams, allowing just over 61 points per contest, and are ranked 9th in the country in rebounds. Yet again, IU faces another team whose strengths would appear to mirror their weaknesses.

The Hoosiers have the ability to play with the Terps, and my guess is they will. It seems like every time a ranked team comes into Assembly Hall, the Hoosiers come out with something to prove, and a chip on their shoulders.

Maryland’s guards and wings tend to do the scoring, same as the Hoosiers. Indiana matches up well with Coach Turgeon’s team, and I’m guessing the Hoosiers will come out with the win.

After Maryland, the Hoosiers play three of the next four games on the road. First, the Hoosiers will travel to Columbus for a rematch the Buckeyes. You have to figure the Bucks will be out for blood, and Value City Arena has never been a very hospitable place for IU. I expect them to lose this game, although I suppose we could pull out another surprising road victory.

Then, they travel to Purdue… While, in my humble opinion, the Hoosiers are the superior team from a talent standpoint, Matt Painter and his bunch will be out to prove that they can play with their rivals once more. This isn’t the same Purdue team that IU crushed last season, and Indiana doesn’t have the size to compete with AJ Hammons and Isaac Haas underneath. The two seven footers combine for 20 points and 11 rebounds per contest, and to be blunt, there isn’t anyone on the Indiana roster that can guard them, if they get the ball close to the basket. As much as it pains me to say it, I’m going to call this one a close IU loss.

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Indiana will then come back home briefly to host the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers. The Hoosiers should win this game, but we all know that they have a tendency to play down to the level their opponent, and Rutgers already has shown they can play with anybody in the league, as shown in their upset of Wisconsin earlier this month. If the right IU team shows up, they should have a convincing win. Will the good Hoosiers show up though? That’s a tough question. A loss to Rutgers at home might just send Hoosier Nation over the edge rather quickly, so let’s just hope that doesn’t happen.

Finally, the Hoosiers travel to Madison to do battle with lead leading Wisconsin. Even typing the word “Wisconsin” makes me cringe. Seeing Bo Ryan’s face has the same effect on me as downing a bottle of ipecac. Yes, I need help, I know, but I don’t have to remind you how much of a pain in the rear side the Badgers have been to Indiana in recent years. Every time the Hoosiers travel to the Kohl Center, I tense up just like I do at the crest of a hill before a roller coaster takes off. It would not surprise me in the least if the people in Cheese World find a way to guarantee Ted Valentine officials the game, just for good measure.

Bo Ryan’s team is big. It’s physical, and plays the typical Bo Ryan defense that drives IU fans insane. The big difference this year is they can flat-out score as well. The Hoosiers are going to lose this game, handily. It is what it is. If Crean finds a way to win this game, he deserves a freaking medal, and I might just run down the street in front of my house, pumping my fists in the air. I hate the cold, so this lets you know how much I hate Wisconsin.

Can the Hoosiers go 5-0 in this stretch of games? Sure. I could also win a million dollars in that time too, but I don’t plan on holding my breath. The realist in me thinks this is pretty darned unlikely.

Best case scenario: My guess (or hope) is that IU comes out of this tough five game stretch at 2-3, which would make them a respectable 16-7 going into the last half of the conference season. That would put them at 6-5 in conference play, likely good enough for 5-6th place, squarely on the NCAA bubble. Provided that they win all the games they are supposed to win, their marque victories against top 25 teams should be enough to put them in the dance.

The problem is, most people don’t know which games IU is supposed to win the remainder of the year. Aside from Wisconsin and Maryland, just about every other team in the league, aside from Penn State and Rutgers, is even. If Indiana can win the 50/50 games, the Hoosiers will be in good shape.

Worst case scenario: IU falls to a superior Maryland team, loses tough close games to Ohio State and Purdue, comes home and lays an egg against Rutgers, and then gets throttled in Madison, going 0-5. I don’t have to tell you that most IU fans will be on DEFCON 1 at this point, and once again the “Crean’s on the hot seat” crowd will become vocal. At 14-9 at that juncture, the Hoosiers will have to play some seriously good basketball to make it to the tournament, and even then it might not be enough. I will have gone through about 3 remotes by this time, but then again, that’s par for the course.

In any case, you have to figure that the next five games will be the test that we all will be able to use to find out what this young Hoosier team is made of. You’ll laugh, you might cry, you’ll definitely do a lot of yelling, and something tells me there might be a chorus of 4-letter words radiating from home across the state on game nights.

But hey, this is Indiana. Would you want it any other way?

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