Caitlin Clark’s early MVP case has one understated lifeline
Caitlin Clark may be sidelined by a quadricep injury, but the race for the WNBA MVP award is far from over—a fact she can thank the timing of her injury and the lack of a true runaway candidate for.
Napheesa Collier has a powerful case for MVP. The 28-year-old is currently averaging 25.1 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 2.1 steals, and 1.1 blocks on an 8-0 Minnesota Lynx team. A'ja Wilson, meanwhile, is averaging 22.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 2.7 blocks, and 2.3 steals on the 4-2 Las Vegas Aces.
No matter what Clark does upon returning from injury, it's going to be difficult to match or surpass what Collier and Wilson are doing at the top of the leaderboard.
For as true as that may be, neither Collier nor Wilson have even reached the quarter-mark of the 2025 WNBA season. They're both remarkable talents capable of sustaining this generational level of play, but that doesn't guarantee that they will.
If there's only one reason to believe that Clark can still compete for MVP, it's the simple fact that so much time remains in the season—and no one can definitively run away with the award after a maximum of eight games.
No one has run away with MVP—meaning Caitlin Clark can re-enter race
The primary hurdle facing Clark is that the MVP award rarely goes to players who miss significant time due to injury. There is a recent example of how far the criteria could stretch, however, as Jonquel Jones won MVP in 2021 despite missing five of the Connecticut Sun's 32 games.
In the event that Clark returns directly after the projected two-week absence, she would have missed five games herself—in a 44-game campaign.
It's admittedly optimistic to project that Clark won't miss a single other outing, but there's certainly precedent for a player remaining healthy at that rate. As such, the Indiana star playing at an MVP-caliber level across 39 out of 44 games would be impossible to overlook.
It may be difficult to see the bigger picture with the uncertainty of when Clark will return to the court hanging over her head, but it's a compelling possibility nonetheless.
Clearly, Clark would need to be magnificent to win MVP in a season where Collier and Wilson are setting such an extraordinary pace. One simply can't help but reiterate that neither Collier nor Wilson have even played 20 percent of the games their respective teams have scheduled for the 2025 campaign.
With more than 80 percent of the season yet to be played, writing Clark off as an MVP candidate simply can't be justified without knowing how she'll perform the rest of the way.
It's also worth noting that Indiana has lost two of its three games without Clark. There would be captivating calls for MVP if that trend continues, only for Clark to return, right the ship, and sustain her current averages of 19.0 points, 9.3 assists, 6.0 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 1.0 block, and 2.8 three-point field goals made per game.
That's far easier said than done, and Indiana will certainly hope to find success despite Clark's absence, but the point stands: It's far too early to crown or rule out an MVP candidate.