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Colts host the Texans in Pivotal AFC South Showdown

By Dave McKee

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It all comes down to this, the Indianapolis Colts host the Houston Texans in a divisional showdown that will likely decide the AFC South standings ahead of the playoffs.

The Colts and the Texans are still tied atop the AFC South standings – despite being a game below .500 – with the Jaguars one game behind after their 35 point blowout of the Colts in Jacksonville last week. Matt Hasselbeck, despite being knocked out of the past two games with injuries, will soldier on in his continuing vigil of holding down the fort in place of Andrew Luck.

The Colts’ 16-game winning streak against the AFC South came to a sudden halt last week, this game has every indication of being the deciding factor in the division and could by extension be a huge factor in deciding who stays or goes in 2016.

Charle Whitehurst is called clipboard Jesus for a reason. He simply is best with a clipboard in his hand instead of a football. I am not trying to be so negative on the guy, but the tape doesn’t lie and neither do the numbers. In two games Whitehurst has a 22.7 QB rating. Whitehurst is 6of-16 for 59 yards with one interception and three sacks. So, the number one priority for the Colts today will be keeping Hasselbeck upright and untouched for four quarters against the J.J. Watt and the rest of the Texans pass rush. Not the easiest assignment but it worked out well in week five when the Colts beat Houston 27-20.

Where to Watch:

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WHO: Indianapolis Colts (6-7) vs. Houston Texans (6-7)

WHEN: Today, 1:00 pm ET / 12:00 pm CT

WHERE: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)

TV Broadcast: CBS

Mobile Stream: NFL Mobile App

RADIO: Indy’s SportCenter 93.5 FM /1070 AM

Keys to the Game:

Indianapolis Star columnist Gregg Doyel hit the nail on the head this morning with his pre-game tweet:

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I’d rather see that bag of hot air found outside of Lucas Oil Stadium at quarterback than Whitehurst because I truly do not think even J.J. Watt could bring him down. Sometimes a statue in the pocket can be a good thing, right? All joking aside this just goes to show just how thin the Colts truly are at quarterback depth. Hasselbeck will start despite his banged up rib cage in the hope of extending the Colts lead for one more week.

Perhaps Santa Claus got all of the letters from the little Andrew Luck fans and grants their Christmas wish, so Luck is healthy enough to play next week.

One positive for the Colts is that Anthony Castonzo is returning to the starting lineup at left tackle. This allows Jow Reitz to slide back over to right tackle and solidify the pocket. Without Castonzo, the Colts gave up eight sacks in their last two games. In both of those contests the pocket was nowhere near clean as they allowed the defense to stagnate the offense in route to back-to-back 35-point blowouts.

With Castonzo back and Reitz as his bookend, look for the combination of Jack Mewhort, Jonothan Harrison and Hugh Thornton to anchor the interior of the offensive line. When healthy this has been the most successful combination of starters for the o-line this season. With the playoff race so tight in the division, the Colts will need this line to remain healthy for the final three games of the regular season. Here is how the playoff picture looks now:

The rushing attack for the Colts will have to get going early and often. As of late, Frank Gore and company have struggled to sustain meaningful rushing game. At the beginning of the season, the running game was impressive in the first half of games but faded later in the game as the Colts abandoned the run for the passing game. Much of this was due to former OC Pep Hamilton trying to get the Colts back in the game when trailing, but under Rob Chudzinski the power running attack is essential. With a healthy line perhaps we will see a rejuvenation of the power run game that can help Hasselbeck, or perhaps even Whitehurst, stay on their feet by keeping the Texans defense off-balanced.

The pass rush, or lack thereof, will be the third integral factor of the Colts game plan today. Brian Hoyer is out for the Texans this week. In his place, T.J. Yates will start. The last time Yates started against the Colts was nearly four years ago to the day, on December 22, 2011. Yates went 13-of-16 for 132 yards in a 19-16 loss. Yates struggled against the Colts pass rush then and he will likely do so today as well if they can generate pressure on him. Indianapolis needs to dial up the heat and keep Yates from getting comfortable in the pocket, doing so has an additional bonus of keeping wide receiver Deandre Hopkins quiet. If Yates can’t get the ball out, Hopkins cannot carve up the secondary. It’s time to hear Robert Mathis‘ name called for a few sacks or, at least, a strip-sack  would be nice.

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This game truly is too close to call and that’s a sad thing considering the expectations the Colts fans had for their beloved team at the beginning of the year. This is the reality of things, in the NFL nothing is a given and what looks great on paper sometimes never pans out. However, there is one final stat that could indicate the outcome. The Colts are 23-4 against Houston all-time and are still undefeated at home against the Texans. Perhaps this is one streak that will last one more week.

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